Post-9/11, The U.S. Phoenix Never Rose
Ten years ago exactly, September 2001, I wrote an article, "The Phoenix Will Rise," which has since been repeatedly reprinted around the anniversary date.
I wrote then that, "Once the United States' leadership clearly signals to the rest of the world that it seeks victory rather than compromise, and that it understands that democratized capital markets are the key to its riches, prosperity will be swift, and its foundations will be strengthened. This has always been the case."
Well, since then two wars have been fought. Though victory was declared in Iraq, it seems hardly a robust one. As to Afghanistan, victory is hardly in sight. Since then Washington, the Federal Reserve, and Wall Street managed to compound mistakes and to destroy the capital markets that many thought should be emulated. So much about daring to make forecasts.
However, behind them was my view that the U.S., more than any other country, had a variety of independent institutions that ensured mistakes would be corrected faster than elsewhere. These included deep, relatively democratized capital markets, VC's, angels, and merchant and investment banks. Corrections are happening, but the pace is pretty slow.
The title of that original piece came from the Greek legend that spoke about the Phoenix, a fabulous Egyptian bird that enriched the country. Once done, the bird then sang a melodious dirge, flapped its wings to set the accumulated wealth and itself afire, and then rose from the ashes with new, vigorous life.
Perhaps the tale is an early version of the saying "three generations from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves" that implied that the first entrepreneurial generation builds, the second one builds on it, and the third, becoming rich and complacent, self-destructs.
The metaphor reveals a trait about human nature that follows tragedy, whether wars or disasters, corporate bankruptcy, or national default. When push comes to shove, people abandon traditions, they bet on new ideas, and they sustain heightened levels of effort...
-Article by Reuven Brenner
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