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Matt Ridley's latest book, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (Harper, 2010), addresses history with a big "H" and dabbles in futurism. Bill Gates, in an exchange with Ridley, notes that though he disagrees with Ridley's futurism, he admits that there are two ideas in the book that are powerful and important.

The first is that "trade" has been a key to rising prosperity over the course of human history. No argument there, but no novelty either. Adam Smith's "instinct to barter" has been by now dissected to esoteric boredom, though Ridley manages to put some new life in his narrative.

The second idea is "rational optimism." Ridley argues that there is no reason to be pessimistic about not solving problems that have been plaguing Africa or those linked to climate change. He argues that humanity has been good at coming up with solutions. Bill Gates, however, remains concerned and recommends urgent action.

Surprisingly, neither one addresses key issues. And Ridley, more than Bill Gates, misses the forest for the trees. The book is like Hamlet without the ghost...

Reuven Brenner holds the Repap Chair at McGill's Desautels Faculty of Management. This article draws on his books History - The Human Gamble and The Force of Finance.

Read full article: , December 9, 2010