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Title:Bayesian Estimation of Individualized Treatment-Response Curves in Populations with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects.

Estimating individual treatment effects is crucial for individualized or precision medicine. In reality, however, there is no way to obtain both the treated and untreated outcomes from the same person at the same time. An approximation can be obtained from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Despite the limitations that randomizations are usually expensive, impractical or unethical, pre-specified variables may still not fully incorporate all the relevant characteristics capturing individual heterogeneity in treatment response. In this work, we use non-experimental data; we model heterogenous treatment effects in the studied population and provide a Bayesian estimator of the individual treatment response. More specifically, we develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method that leverages the G-computation formula to adjust for time-varying confounding in observational data, and it flexibly models sequential data to provide posterior inference over the treatment response at both group level and individual level. On a challenging dataset containing time series from patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), our approach reveals that these patients have heterogenous responses to the treatments used in managing kidney function. We also show that on held out data the resulting predicted outcome in response to treatment (or no treatment) is more accurate than alternative approaches.

Yanxun Xu is an assistant professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at Johns Hopkins University and an adjunct assistant professor in the Devision of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics at The Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine.

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